The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its 2030 outlook for low‑emissions hydrogen production by nearly 25%, citing widespread project cancellations, rising costs, and regulatory uncertainty as key drivers of the change. In its Global Hydrogen Review 2025, the agency now estimates production could reach 37 million tonnes per year by 2030, sharply down from the 49 million tonnes projected the previous year.

Despite the downgrade, the IEA notes that prospects remain reasonably optimistic for projects already past critical milestones. Capacity that is either operational, under construction or at Final Investment Decision (FID) is expected to grow more than fivefold from 2024 levels, reaching over 4 million tonnes per year by 2030. An additional 6 million tonnes has strong potential if supportive policies, demand signals, and infrastructure are accelerated.

The report warns, however, that many announced projects will likely fail to materialize due to the typical long development times—especially for electrolyser‑based hydrogen and green hydrogen components. Delays are especially pronounced in regions with weaker regulatory frameworks, financing access, or less mature supply chains.

China remains a dominant force in this sector, accounting for around 65% of global electrolyser capacity that is installed or committed, and nearly 60% of global manufacturing capacity. But even there, the overhang of capacity and logistical costs means that simply having capacity doesn’t always translate to timely deployment.

One sector of particular interest is Southeast Asia. It has the potential to increase low‑emissions hydrogen production from tiny current levels (only about 3,000 tonnes/year) to nearly 430,000 tonnes/year by 2030, if enabling conditions—renewables, policies, finance—can be improved.

The revised forecast underscores the gap between ambition and execution. While low‑emission hydrogen is still viewed as critical for decarbonising hard‑to‑abate sectors like steel, heavy transport, shipping, and refining, the IEA’s update makes it clear that without stronger policy support, clearer demand signals, and accelerated infrastructure (electrolysers, transport, storage), many announced projects will miss their timelines.

In summary, the IEA’s trimmed forecast reflects a more cautious view of the hydrogen landscape to 2030. The clean hydrogen pipeline remains large, but only a fraction is near certain. As governments and industries push towards net‑zero targets, the pressure will be on turning promise into delivery.

Source: 

https://www.indexbox.io/blog/iea-cuts-2030-green-hydrogen-forecast-by-25/